Anthony P's NHL Model November 3, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will be adding new sports and models to the app. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR NOV 3, 2022

The model liked the under in Toronto yesterday and I wasn't too crazy about it as per my write-up. I don't think I was wrong in my analysis and the total did go over. At the time I ran my model the under 7 was available so at least that would have been a push. The Flyers allowed Toronto to score 3 powerplay goals and that was the difference.

Tonight we have any spots and ill try to review most of them with short notes. It's a little easier to get into details when we have a small NBA slate.

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I feel like the Caps have burnt me a couple of times in this young season. The team got better during the preseason but the injuries have really made it difficult to get some consistency from them. I'm testing a new player-effect model but it's far from being ready however this model suggests that with the current rosters the Wings should be a -119 favorite with Husson in nets. He isn't confirmed yet and LWL has Nedeljkovic projected. My lean is Detroit if Husso suits up.

I covered Seattle in the Overnight Grind article. The sharps are loving the Kraken's value tonight in Minnesota. With the money moving the line in Seattle's favor, this opened some value on the Wild. Seattle has no more goalies. Grubauer is out and Jones just left the team indefinitely for personal reasons. Driedger is out till at least mid-January so that leaves us with Joey Daccord. He might have beaten Calgary this week but his numbers are not good. The Wild are playing much better at both ends after a slow start to the season and even if the number is big, ill be supporting them tonight.

Vancouver has to stop allowing 40 SOG per game if they want to win games. Their PP has been on fire scoring in 5 straight games with 3 multi PP goals in their last 3 games. But, their PK has allowed a PP goal in 6 straight. Anaheim is in coming winning their last 2 games where they put up 83 SOGs but allowed just as much. The Ducks are second worst in GA/G at 4.3 and 4th worst on the road allowing 4.57 GA/G. Vancouver is just as bad so I don't get why the total is at 6 with Gibson and Demko between the pipes with a combined GAA of over 8. In a game where I expect a lot of goals from both teams, I dont feel comfortable laying -170.

I've watched way too many Habs/Jets games to know that these two always ended up in high-scoring games. The over is 18-8 in the last 26 meetings however this season both offenses are in the bottom tier of the league. Also, both teams haven't been shooting the puck well. The Jets scored 6 on the Kings with only 19 SOG. That's disgusting! The model is very strong on the under and projecting 5.48 goals. I would support the under in this game once Hellebuyck is confirmed.

Blow out in Ottawa? The model is expecting 7.46 goals. The money and the tickets are the under. This is mostly supported by Vegas's amazing start from their goalies and defensive play. Vegas is by far the best defensive team in the league and they allow under 1.70 GA/G however that number goes up to 2.2 GA/G on the road. The Sens scores close to 5 GF/G at home and they will be a handful for Vegas. The Golden Knights are also strong offensively and sport the 5th best xGF/60 and are the number 1 team in terms of creating high-danger chances for.

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