Anthony P's NHL Model November 2, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will be adding new sports and models to the app. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

Would you like to unlock all my VIP picks? Use promo code AnthonyP and get 1 month free or Join our free Discord server and ask @anthony p any questions you have.


NHL BETTING MODEL FOR NOV 2, 2022

Let's start with one of my quotes from yesterday's write-up: "The Capitols and Bruins are interesting values tonight. I will ignore the value on the Coyotes. The line is inflated but I don't believe Arizona will be able to win tonight"

Well, it was Vejmelka's miracle night in Arizona. He made 42 stops while his team never dominated the game and finished the night with a CF of 35.44% which is awful. Except for the first 7 minutes of the game, the Panthers totally dominated the game.

Tonight we have a small slate however there is a total that is screaming value. The under 6.5 in Toronto presents us with over 10% EV. The Flyers are 6th best in the league in GA/G and 3rd best when on the road. The sample size is small with only 4 road games but my concern is that they are due to regress. They are currently allowing 2.00 GA/G on the road however their PK is at 75% and they allow close to 36 SA/G per game.

Sandstrom is projected tonight and I don't get it. The Flyers aren't playing till Nov 5th. Anyway, Sandstrom's EVSV% of under 0.900 is a concern especially since the Leafs are due for a run after a terrible start to the season. It's odd to say but after 10 games this season, the Leafs are a bottom-10 team in terms of scoring but they are 9th in xGF and it's just a question of time for them. They have created a ton of HDCF but gave up the 5th most HDCA.

Lastly, with Samsonov back home which he allows on average 2 goals against this season, we should expect a better performance than his last 2 games on the road but it's not enough for me to pull the trigger here.

Join the conversation for free in our discord server and ask me how you can get a free month of the Sharp App

Join Discord and ask @anthony p any questions you have on other games