Anthony P's NHL Model November 19, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR NOV 19, 2022

The Sens are showing value and I would have thought the Devils would have been higher favorites but they are not. This is the Devil's 3rd straight road game and as mentioned the line is a little fishy here. This game has the second highest of the slate based on my model and both teams have been peppering their opponents in shots as of late. The Sens blasted close to 40 SOG against the Sabres and Islanders while the Devils keep on dominating the league with 36 SOG/G and xGF/60. I prefer the over in this game since there is nothing that seems to be able to stop the Devils.

The Bluejackets offense has scored 11 goals in their last 2 games and won both of them. If it wouldn't have been for their goalie it could have easily been 2 losses. They have been giving up over 40 SOG in their last 3 games and not sure this will be a concern since the RedWings have embarrassed themselves in 3 out of their last 4 games by shooting 21 shots or under. Detroit has only won once in their last 7 trips to Columbus and they are 10-26 in the last 36 meetings. The Wings have the second worst xGF/60 however 13th in GF/G therefore expect some regression and they shouldn't be -140 favorites in Columbus.

The over is always in play when the Ducks are playing. They give up close to 5 goals per game on the road however the total is only 6. Makes no sense right? St Louis is 26th in defensive metrics this season but will face one of the worst offenses. The Ducks have played 4 straight unders and games in St Louis have only gone over 3 of the last 17 times.

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