Anthony P's NHL Model January 19, 2023

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR JAN 19, 2023

We didn't have much to cover yesterday since it was a small slate and we had no value. The Sens won a close one and our discussions in my discord channel were around the support I had for Ottawa however the concerns about having Talbot between the pipes for Ottawa. He was terrible once again but at least Ottawa won.

The Bruins did what they had to do. The line moved on them throughout the day and for a good reason. The Islanders are having a hard time scoring and face the best defensive team in the league and Ullmark was in the nets.

The Flames were a disappointment just like their season. They couldn't take advantage of Makar not being in the lineup for the Avs but it didn't really matter since the Avs dominated puck possession throughout the game except in the last 10 minutes of the 3rd. It was too late by then.

The Sharks surprised many by winning 5-3 in a game where the line was all over the place. I was expecting to see some late action on Dallas once they confirmed Oettinger but it wasn't the case. That was fishy.

Except for 2 totals where it's close to +8 EV, I don't see any value for today. It's a big slate therefore ill take the time to gather all the information and update this article once most of the morning practices are over.

UPDATE:

The Toronto under 6.5 play no longer has value. The books dropped the total to 6. If did lock in the under 6.5 good for you! As for the rest, I haven't seen anything drastic during the morning practices and I don't see any surprises with the goalies.

If we quickly take a look at a prop for tonight. I usually like sorting teams with the highest team total on any given slate and finding a player on the top 2 lines that plays on the first power play and who are cheap in the player points prop. Something else I also do is sort the worst defenses in the league and try and find a player with value on the opposing team in which he can get a point.

Columbus allows close to 4 GA/G at home this year and will face the Ducks that barely score over 2 GF/G on the road. McTavish is 3rd in points on the Ducks and he plays on the same line as their point leader Terry. He also plays on the top PP with Terry and Zegras. Terry is -190 to get a pts and Zegras is -160. We get McTavish at -0.5 -115 tonight. Take it!

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