Anthony P's NHL Model January 18, 2023

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR JAN 18, 2023

Many will be disappointed with the model. We have no value today unless we see a big move throughout the day.

Yesterday we had some value on the Coyotes and the over. The value disappeared quickly as the line moved in Arizona's favor. I made a case for not liking the over and it looked pretty good at the end of the second period. But I wasn't too confident that it would stick since Detroit has been one of the worst 3rd period teams in the last month or so. In their last 11 games, the over 1.5 goals in the third is 11-0 and in half of those games the total went over 2.5 goals in the 3rd. Both teams entered the 3rd in a 1-1 tie just to score 4 goals and push the total over 6 with a 4-3 win from the Coyotes.

There is clear sharp money on the Sens and my model agrees. The sharp report also shows sharp money on the Avs but I am now seeing money coming in on the Flames therefore in the next update ill have to check if there is sharp money on the Flames.

The Bruins are now at -191 and that line is currently inflated as per the model. I have the Bruins at -155.

The Stars will be very popular tonight and that line is going up and down like a 6 flags ride. Dallas opened at -170 at DK just to drop it at -155 when BOL opened the game on low betting limits. Some markets moved it back to -175 around 9 am EST just for it to go back down to -155. This line will settle when Dallas confirms their goalie for tonight. Tomorrow they are playing against the Kings I would expect Wedgewood tonight and Oettinger tomorrow.... hence why I have Dallas at -136 tonight. If by any chance I am wrong and Oettinger plays tonight, the Stars move up to -173


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