Anthony P's NHL Model January 17, 2023

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR JAN 16, 2023

The model had some value on the under in Seattle yesterday. We broke that game down and concluded that betting on TB was a better option.

We also had some value on the over in Buffalo but I expressed my concerns about the Sabres offense cooling down and I was right. Congrats to those that tailed my Panthers bet. That bet was made available to PRO users of the app.

We had some value on the Coyotes this morning however that value is gone since the line moved their way at around 9 AM going from +131 to +110 at some markets. The over is still in play and we have 9.2% EV on the over 6 goals. The model has this game projected at 6.74 goals. Arizona is 18th in scoring at home (3.07) and 8th worst with a 3.53 GA/G. Detroit's offense ranks in the middle of the pack but they are terrible on the road allowing close to 4 GA/G.

This is an ugly game to handicap folks. Since Jan 1st the Coyotes are 0-8, have scored on average 1.63 GF/G, and allowed 3.75 GA/G. The Wings are 2-5 scoring on average 3 GF/G and allowing 4 GA/G. Both PPs have been shit and hitting under 17% and both haven't been good on the PK with Detroit posting a terrible 61% efficiency rating. The Wings played last night while Arizona is playing a 3rd game in 4 nights. It's clear to expect some sloppy and shitty hockey tonight which can either turn into a barn burner based on their defensive metrics or a low-scoring game due to fatigue and Arizona's inability to score.

The model doesn't know the Wings played last night and that Arizona is on a 3in4 spot but trends show that the under in Detroit's b2b games is a 2-4 and 1-3 for Arizona on a 3in4 spot.

My gut says it stays under....Ill pass on this one.


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