Anthony P's NHL Model January 16, 2023

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR JAN 16, 2023

It's unfortunate that we find ourselves on back-to-back days where the model hasn't shown us some good value. The plays are 7-4 +2.24 units in January and that is less than 1 play per day. What can I say? We have to be patient. Anyway, it will not stop me from reviewing atleast one game.

We have about 7% EV on the under in the Kraken / Lighting game however that is not enough for me and I personally don't like it. I'll add it to the tracker since it's close to the 8% I am looking for but not sure I'd want to pull the trigger on this one.

Seattle is second in scoring this season but most of the damage is done on the road. At home, they are 18th in scoring behind Arizona... yes Arizona. These types of splits drive me crazy!

Since Christmas, Seattle is leading the league with 4.50 GF/A and Tampa is 6th with 3.67. The Lighting recently passed the Panthers with the best PP in 2023 with an efficiency rating of 42% while the Kraken sport the 5th worst PK at 68%. We expect Jones and Vasilevskiy between the pipes which should help those backing the under. Jones is on fire winning 7 of his last 8 and maintaining a GAA of 2.15 and an SV% of .916. Vasilevskiy is 6-1 in this last 7 and kept a GAA of under 2.50 and an SV% of .920.

We can expect some regression in scoring from the Kraken since they are 17th in xGF/60 but the Lightings offense is legit with the 4th best xG/60.

The last time they met was on Dec 13th, 2022, and the Lighting dominated on home ice with an easy 6-2 win. Leading up to that game both teams had similar statistics walking into tomorrow's game. We gotta like the Lightning in this spot especially since this will be Seattle's first game back after a perfect 7-0 road trip but I don't have a lean on the total.

UPDATE:

We have some value on the over between the Sabres and Panthers. It's at +8.49% EV and slightly over the target number that I am looking for. My only concern is the Sabres offense. They've been scoring 1/2 goal less per game in the new year when compared to their season average. The lack of defense from the Panthers should compensate since they've been allowing 3.71 GA/G in their last 7 games. The Sabres haven't been playing good D either and have allowed close to 4 GA/G in their last 7.

Someone asked me why the Sharks are getting sharp money. It's a good question. My model is in line with the opening number but what my model can't evaluate is that the Devils are in their 3rd game in 4 nights on a west coast trip and I'm sure the sharp money is seeing value in that.

Nashville is playing a 4th game in 6 nights and the Pens are playing a 3rd game in 4 nights. The Pens should still win this game but we saw the number go from -350 to -306. We also saw the Pens get dominated by the Jets last game and missing Letang, Petry, and Pettersson has been huge for them. Jarry is also expected to miss this game.



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