Anthony P's NHL Model January 14, 2023

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR JAN 14, 2023

It's 3-1 for the Jets going into the 3rd. That was our only model play for Friday. We have a ton of games Saturday. I will share an update on the model Saturday morning but for now, these are the early projections.

We have one play that stands out and it's the over in Sunrise Florida. The total is at 6.5 and the model has this game at 7.47 giving us close to 13% EV.

The Canucks are almost dead last in GA/G this season and since the new year, in 5 games, they are 1-4 and have allowed on average 5 GA/G while scoring 3.6 GF/G. They just lost to the TB, PIT, and WIN and have allowed a total of 17 goals in those 3 games.

The Panthers just put up 39 and 37 SOG to Colorado and Vegas and if they keep that up they might get the over by themselves.

The Florida offense did dry up a little in the new year and barely scored over 3 goals per game in their 6 games in 2023. Their defensive play also regressed and allowed 0.40 more goals than their season average. If we look at special teams, the Panthers PP is leading the league in 2023 with an efficiency rate of 41% and scored 7 goals in their last 17 tries. That's good shit folks. If we look at the Canucks PK, they are dead last in 2023 at 60% and have allowed 6 goals in their last 15 PKs. That's real shit folks. We are not too sure who will be in nets tomorrow for both teams but it doesn't really matter since both teams have struggled between the pipes this season.

Lots of things need to go wrong for this game not to go over 6.5. Take it now before it moves to 7.

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