Anthony P's NHL Model January 11, 2023

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR JAN 11, 2023

The best value play yesterday was the over 6.5 in Buffalo. The model also liked Colorado however that line swang big time in Florida's favor and it was 3-0 after the first for the Panthers. The model also liked the Wild and they had that game. Defensive meltdowns cost them the win.

We got no value tonight and nothing stands out in this 4 game slate. The average fav line is -202 and it's that kind of night where the book can either make a ton or lose a ton.

Can the Flyers continue their hot run and win a 6th game in their last 7? They are playing the Caps who have recently gone on a crazy 10-1 run but are 3-3 in their last 6 with only 2 PP goals in their last 4 games. If you are desperately looking for some NHL action, I'd sparkle a little on the FLyers to continue their run. Hart is expected to be between the pipes. Kuemper who got a shutout last game and is rested should get the start for the Caps.

Can the Preds beat the Leafs? I'd say yes if Matthews was out but after missing practice, yesterday beat writers confirmed he's on the ice this morning and he should play tonight. The Preds are coming into Toronto having won 4 straight and 3 of those wins have been on the road vs Ottawa, Washington, and Carolina. Beating the Caps and Canes is not an easy task and it's even harder doing it on b2b nights. Why not risk a little on the Preds also?

The sharks are on a road b2b and they are 3-6 in b2b games and 0-1 after a win. We can expect Reimer in nets tonight since Kahkonen started yesterday. Quick hasn't played in 2023 yet and he's projected to start for LA. The Sharks are 15-5 in the last 20 meetings in Los Angeles however only have 3 wins in their last 10 overall. The Kings are averaging 4 GF/G in 2023 (4 games) and the Sharks have hit the over in 8 of their last 10. Reimer has a save % of under 0.900, same for Quick which he hasn't played since Dec 31st. Can you see this game go over the total?


***UPDATE: Matthews is out tonight


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