Anthony P's NHL Model January 10, 2023

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR JAN 10, 2023

The model is showing value on 3 plays tonight. The Avs line dropped about 30% and the model has them at -150 therefore at -127 there is close to 7% EV on them. I covered this game in the Overnight Grind article. I like the Avs tonight.

The squares are really loving the Rangers tonight and they are backed by 70% of the tickets and 81% of the handle. The Wild looked lifeless at home last game when the Blues who are decimated by injuries shut them down and won 3-0. The Rangers looked really good in Jersey on Saturday but found a way to blow the game and lost in OT. This should be a close game and we shouldn't see many goals. The Wild are 3rd in xGA/60 at 2.2 and in close games, I tend to lean on the team with the better defense.

Seattle and Buffalo played last night and Buffalo is 1-5 on no rest and the total is 3-3 in the same spot. The Kraken is 1-0 with no rest and played an under on the second game of a b2b. The model is strong on the over and is projecting 7.61 goals for this game. Both teams are in the top 3 in scoring this season and Seattle scored 24 goals in their last 5 averaging close to 5 goals per game. In 3 of those 5 games they shot under 26 times, therefore, they faced some shitty goaltending and tonight shouldn't be any different. We are still not sure if it will be Comrie or Luukkonen. Buffalo's offense has been inconsistent and hard to figure out. They were in a smash spot last night but couldn't score a goal versus a bad Flyers team which we should give them a little credit for being 5-1 last 6 games. There is a pattern here with the Sabres, they can't beat teams that are hot. The Kraken is hot and should roll out of Buffalo with a victory and we should see many goals tonight between these 2 teams which have scored 24 goals in the first 3 times they met.



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