Anthony P's NHL Model February 7, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR FEB 7, 2023

The model likes the Kraken and the over tonight. I covered a little of this game in the Overnight Grind since I was interested in the line movement on the Kraken however it's not been the case and the line hasn't moved. The Islanders played last night and barely beat the Flyers. Philadelphia has been playing better as of late and I wasn't surprised by the final score. I am surprised that there is no line movement on the Kraken taking into consideration that the Islanders played last night. To be fair, Sorokin is playing tonight and most of the time we see the line move against a team that played the night before and going into the second leg of a b2b with their backup goalie.

Seattle won't have Beniers, Schawarts, and Schults in their lineup tonight but it hasn't really affected the team in terms of their win %. Without Schwartz, the team is 5-3 and without Schultz, they are 3-1.

The Kraken lead the league in scoring on the road and average 4.30 GF/G and since the new year, they are tied with the Bruins with 11 wins and 4 losses. They also have the 9th-best PK while the Islanders are dead last in 2023 with a PP% of 7.7%, hence the acquisition of Hotvat. Seattle's home and away splits are crazy and they are always a good bet when on the road no matter who they are playing. They are 7-1 in their last road games with a goal differential per game of +2.375 putting them ahead of the Oilers by 0.375 goals per game and 0.775 ahead of the 3rd leading team.

The Islanders are 3-3-2 in 2023 but what stands out is their inability to score goals. Since the new year, they are averaging 1.75 GF/G and Sorokin is left alone making miracles. Tonight they face the #1 scoring team on the road.

Honestly, I don't freaking get this line and it's stopping me from dropping a 3 dimer play. I'll keep an eye on this game throughout the day and make sure I haven't missed anything. Apart from the Islanders being 6-3 on b2b, I don't see anything else. The trends on the under are heavy for the NYI and Seattle under is 8-1-1 in the last 10 games vs the Metro but the model likes the over. My thoughts are that this game stays close based on the short under trends and might give us heartburn if betting the Kraken but I can also see a no-sweat 4-1 win from Seattle...

Anaheim, Tampa, and NYI are all playing on no rest. We haven't seen much movement against them except for Tampa where they opened at -300 and are now at -225. No, there is no sharp money on the Sharks.

The game will be watching tonight is the Avs and Pens. That is the best game on the slate tonight. Colorado should have Nichuskin and Byram back and I expect them to go on a run in the second half now that they are getting healthier. The Pens might be missing depth players with Archibald and Kapanen.

I expected Toews to play tonight for Chicago but it looks like he will be out. This doesn't change my position on Chicago!

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