Anthony P's NHL Model February 6, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR FEB 6, 2023

How do we get back in the NHL after a long break? We don't! Take let the first 2-3 slates go by and then jump right in. Does it mean that I won't be looking at it? Absolutely not! I'll have my eye all over the NHL as the NBA is approaching the trade deadline (Thursday) and it can get messy there also.

Hopefully, the first week back from the break will give us a better understanding of which teams will try and make a run for a playoff spot. I am not worried about the Canes, Devils, Bruins, Leafs, or Lightning in the Eastern however what will happen with the Capitals, Pens, and Sabres?

The Western seems to be a lot more of a struggle since the wild cards are much closer to the top 3 in the Central and Pacific. The Avs are getting healthier and we should expect them to make a serious push to the top. The Oilers have 2 games in hand and are only 4 pts away from the Jets.

The model hasn't much for us today except maybe the over between the Stars and Ducks but the EV is sitting under 8% therefore I don't have much interest in looking at it. The model seems to be right about the value on the Coyotes since the line is moving their way but this can also mean that the Wild were inflated by the books.

The sharps have been very quiet in this 6 game slate. We've seen some movement on big favorites but that is pretty much standard in the NHL. It also looks that money is coming in on the Panthers this afternoon but no sharp money yet and the total handle on the game is still low. I just ran my DFS projections and ownership and just like many, it's obvious the Devils and Stars will lead the way followed by the Wilds. All 3 are big favorites and the lines did move in their favor except for Zona where we are seeing a little buyback this afternoon. This makes for the Lightning and Panthers interesting options on much less expected ownership.

Just in - Halak is confirmed and the line dropped from -125 to -102. No sharp money on the Flames but my projections already included Halak to start with him being the first goalie to be off the ice this morning. I don't anticipate any big changes for the other teams and they should roll with their top goalies. Tampa is playing tomorrow in San Jose so we are 99% to see Elliott tomorrow.

The sharp report is showing heavy square interest in Tampa, NY Rangers, and NY Islanders. We usually like to fade those plays and I won't make an argument on that. Tampa is slow at getting going, the Rangers are running a hot Halak if we are looking at his numbers since mid-December but he's still Halak and the Islanders welcome Horvat in his first game on the road versus a Flyers team that ended the first half of the season 8-4-2.

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