Anthony P's NHL Model December 6, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR DEC 6, 2022

Last night was interesting!! The Rangers came thru in dramatic fashion and the Coyotes almost won also. It was a disaster yesterday tbh.

The AI was strong on the Flyers and Caps and I made fun of it all day. At the end of the night, I asked myself what the fuck just happened.

My model likes the value on a big favorite in the Islanders tonight. The Blues played a hard-fought game last night in New York and even though the travel is not long, I doubt they have much left in the tank.

My model also likes the under between the Devils and BlackHawks however both defenses have been struggling as of late and I don't agree with the value. Chicago is 3rd worst in xGA/60 while the Devils are 1st in xGF/60 and they can hit the over by themselves against this Chicago team that's allowed over 4 GA/G in their last 10.

We also have value on the Stars tonight at home versus the Leafs. This is going to be the best game to watch tonight and it should be a tight one. The Leafs just lost a tough one in Tampa while the Stars laid an egg at home versus the Wild. This one is too close to call however the Leafs have owned the Stars and this trend might continue.

We cannot trust the Habs when betting the under. They were involved in a massacre last night in a 13-goal game. They allowed 7 to a Canuck team that they were leading 4-0 after the 1st period. They are on a b2b and even with Allen in nets tonight, this game can easily go over unless the habs play the trap for the whole game.

There is always drama with the AI and it's not any different tonight. It has the Redwings at even money on the road in Tampa. Detroit is 4-23 last 27 in Tampa and that is CRAZY!!! The Redwings are better this year but still not at the Lighting levels. My model has this game at -216 and the AI at -108.

Where are massively on opposite sides is in Dallas. The AI has the Leafs at -150 while my model has the Stars at -124. The Leafs are 8-2 L10 versus the Stars and I wouldn't be surprised if they win. They can beat anyone but -150 is too high.

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