Anthony P's NHL Model December 27, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR DEC 27, 2022

The NHL is back and we can expect many to be rusty hence increasing the variables and making the results a little harder to predict. The Model's predictions are pretty tight and we see value in 2 totals for tonight's slate.

The under is 12-1 combined in the Jets and Wilds' last 13 games. Both teams have been playing some solid defense and based on their 30 defensive trends my sub-model is projecting a game total of 5.21. Goalies haven't been confirmed but we can expect Fleury and Hellebuyck. I wouldn't be surprised if this total drops to 5.5.

The Kings and Golden Knights are 26th and 27th in terms of xGA/60 but the Kings have the 8th-worst defense therefore we can expect some positive regression for them. Vegas has a top-10 defense and we can also expect better results as the team get healthier with the D core. The over is 17-5 in the last 22 meetings and 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in LA. The Kings allowed less them 2 GA/G in their last 5 and I'm having a hard time supporting the model in this game.

I will update this article with the AI projections shortly.

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