Anthony P's NHL Model December 16, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR DEC 16, 2022

The Sabres did what we expected them to do but I am a little surprised by the way they dominated. I really didn't like the Ducks and they embarrassed my Habs.

We have a tiny slate in the NHL tonight and the model is not showing any value. If you like to follow the AI plays, it has value on Chicago, Blues, and Coyotes.

As per my model the Wild is inflated at -395 but what do you expect when playing against a team that only won 3 games in their last 20, they are second last in xGF/60 and 3rd worst in xGA/60. I took a look at their last 30 days' trend and both offense and defense have regressed based on their season averages therefore Chicago is getting worst and worst.

I can make a case for taking the Blues tonight but it seems that Greiss will be between the pipes and they played last night. It's a good matchup for Calgary to turn things around, they haven't been good as of late and getting poor goaltending.

The Coyotes always like to bust balls in matchups they shouldn't win. We always think of the Islanders as a defensive team and we are not wrong. They rank 9th in GA/G however the 5th worst team in terms of xGA/60. What is expected xGA? Expected Goals Against (total expected goal value of all Fenwick shots). What is a Fenwick shot? It measures shot attempt differential while playing at even strength. It is also known as unblocked shot attempts. In a nutshell, the Islanders are getting great goaltending. The injury report has Palmieri and Beauvillier probable tonight. That is not good news for the Coyotes!

The numbers point to all fav winning with easy tonight. Parlay all 3 if you want some NHL action tonight or go with all dogs for a BIG payout. It happened 2-3 weeks ago on a Friday when all dogs won.

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