Anthony P's NHL Model December 15, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR DEC 15, 2022

And the Cancucks won yesterday! That was the only play the model liked yesterday. They took a quick 2-0 lead and just gave it up and trail 3-2. They ended up winning 4-3 in OT.

The model likes the Sabres (again) on the road versus a depleted Colorado team and the Blue Jackets. The value is over 20% this morning but it doesn't mean they will win.... just means the line is inflated.

The AI is a little more aggressive and finds value in the Ducks, Flyers, and Blackhawks.

We slammed the Sabres's last game at home versus the Kings and they made us sweat in the first 2 periods but blew the game away in the 3rd. Won't be easy in Colorado as they are slowly getting healthier. Their offense trend in the last 30 days is bad. They went from scoring 3.54 GF/G to 2.54. The Sabres took a massive jump and score 34% more than their season average going from 3.23 to 4.31. The issue is their defensive play with the 12th worst xGA/60 this season. Colorado plays a high-tempo game and Buffalo is 7th in CF% therefore this game should be a little closer than we think.

No, i don't like the Ducks. Yes, the Habs played last night and took 7 penalties and the coach was furious at the end of the game. The Ducks are down to their 3rd and 4th goalie. They have allowed the opposition 47 goals and 11 PP goals in the last 10 games. Habs are young and 3-1 on no rest. Expect the coach to lead and pump this team to victory tonight and redeem themselves for yesterday.

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