Picture a game with a real chance of high wind and a receiver listed as questionable. Do you shave a point for the weather, another for the injury, and move on? That habit is where NFL game script work goes sideways, because wind, lineups and early leads all push on the same things: pass rate, tempo and who gets targets. You will learn to build separate scenarios, attach a probability to each, and weigh the outcomes instead of stacking adjustments that count one effect twice. You will also see why a scenario-weighted average total is not the same as the chance of going over it, and why every injury scenario needs a source and a timestamp. The payoff is a cleaner read on what a total really needs to be.
Learning objectives
Explain the technique, compute the illustrative example, test assumptions, and identify failure modes.
