Totals are arithmetic before they become opinions. A pace and efficiency model breaks a game total into possessions multiplied by points per possession, so you can see which input is doing the work. The basketball example shows how little it takes to swing the number: three extra possessions move the projected total by 6.54 points with efficiency unchanged. You'll learn to build each input without counting the same thing twice, since a fast team and a rotation change can describe one underlying fact. Then you turn the single projection into a distribution before comparing it with the posted total and the odds. A gap alone is only the beginning of the question.
Learning objectives
- Break a total into projected possessions times points per possession.
- Work the basketball example and see how a three-possession pace change moves the total by 6.54 points.
- Turn a mean projection into a distribution before comparing it with a posted total.
