A projected margin of five points isn't a probability, and the gap between the two is where a lot of spread bets go wrong. Cover probability comes from putting a distribution around your projection, then asking how much of it sits beyond the number. You'll work a normal-curve example with a mean of 5 and a standard deviation of 10, and compare the answer with the break-even rate at -110. Then you see why real scores break that curve: results pile up on certain margins, and pushes need their own treatment. The lesson closes with how to estimate the spread of outcomes, because an honest uncertainty matters as much as the projection.
Learning objectives
Understand the core method; reproduce the worked example; diagnose at least two failure modes; apply a testable practice workflow.
