A team with a +6 net rating and another at -4 are ten points apart on paper. Does that mean a ten-point spread? Far from it. NBA net rating is the gap between points scored and allowed per 100 possessions, and it describes what already happened, with a particular lineup against particular opponents. You will learn to separate that description from a forecast, weight bigger samples above hot stretches, and treat on/off numbers as clues instead of verdicts. A lineup built on 90 possessions tells you far less than one built on thousands, and stars who share the floor blur each other's numbers. Use ratings as the start of a projection, never the whole thing.
Learning objectives
- Explain the methodology and its limits.
- Complete the worked calculations.
- Identify market-specific false signals.
- Apply the technique in a paper exercise.
