A left tackle goes down. Does the opposing defense now collect more sacks? NFL pass rush matchups are rarely that simple, and this lesson shows why. You'll work with pressure rate, which is steadier than raw sack totals, and apply it to an expected number of dropbacks. In the example, a tackle's absence lifts pressure from 25% to 31% on 40 dropbacks, adding 2.4 pressured plays but not 2.4 sacks. Then you build two scenarios, active and absent, and ask how the quarterback and the play-caller would adapt. You'll also guard against counting one injury in your ratings, your news adjustment and your props all at once.
Learning objectives
Explain the technique, compute the illustrative example, test assumptions, and identify failure modes.
