Two offenses can post almost the same EPA per play and still be very different to bet on. EPA and success rate measure different things, and this lesson shows how to read them together. EPA tracks how much each play changes a team's expected points, while success rate asks how often plays stay ahead of schedule. A five-play example gives one offense steady gains and the other a single huge play, so the totals match and the profiles don't. You'll also learn what to adjust before comparing teams: opponent quality, garbage time, play type and sample size. State your definition first, then compare, because numbers are evidence, not a verdict.
Learning objectives
Explain the technique, compute the illustrative example, test assumptions, and identify failure modes.
