Two offenses with the same average efficiency can play out very differently against one defense. Matchup analysis is the work of figuring out when that difference is real and when it's just a good story. The lesson starts from baseline strength, then moves through four layers: volume, efficiency, personnel and scheme, and environment. Each layer gets a measured effect rather than a hunch. You'll practice spotting overlap, since pace, an injury and a power rating can all describe the same fact. Treat every matchup edge as a claim that needs its own evidence, and be ready to conclude that the narrative sounds great but adds nothing you can price.
Learning objectives
Distinguish baseline quality from matchup interaction; build a matchup worksheet; quantify plausible effects without double-counting; recognize a compelling narrative that lacks measurable value.
