A spread slides from -2.5 to -3.5 and the story shows up instantly: sharp money. Why lines move is a harder question than that story admits. You'll learn to separate what you can observe, the opener, the traded price and the close, from the explanation you're guessing at. Line and price get recorded together, because a half-point across a key number is not the same as a half-point somewhere else. Then you test the usual suspects: injury news, weather, other venues following a bigger one, and ticket counts versus handle. The payoff is a market-movement journal that keeps you from betting a move just because it feels like a signal.
Learning objectives
Understand the core method; reproduce the worked example; diagnose at least two failure modes; apply a testable practice workflow.
