How much is a starter's absence really worth? Injury impact on betting lines is rarely one number, and treating "out" as a fixed point value is how bettors misprice a game. You'll split a questionable player into playing, limited and out scenarios, then weight each by how likely it looks. The estimate gets built in units that fit the sport: minutes in basketball, snaps in football, innings in baseball. You'll also learn to catch double-counting, where one downgrade gets applied in your rating and again in your news adjustment. Last, you log every report with its source and a timestamp, so you can always tell what the market knew and when it knew it.
Learning objectives
Translate personnel news into a scenario-based projection; distinguish availability from impact; avoid double-counting; log news timestamps and uncertainty.
