A 9-3 record can hide a weaker team than a 7-5 one. Strength of schedule asks whom a team played, and opponent adjustment asks how good it looked against that opposition. You'll compare a team's results with what each opponent normally allows, using a small example where the raw numbers and the adjusted numbers point in opposite directions. Then comes the circularity problem: opponent strength is itself estimated from teams whose strength is uncertain, which is why ratings need to be solved together. The goal isn't a fancier rating, it's one that predicts later games better than the raw one. If it doesn't, leave the adjustment out of your projection.
Learning objectives
Understand the core method; reproduce the worked example; diagnose at least two failure modes; apply a testable practice workflow.
