Your player prop lands or misses on court time before it lands or misses on talent. Nobody scores twenty if he sits the fourth quarter of a blowout. An NBA minutes projection starts there, treating minutes as a spread of likely outcomes instead of one season average, then layers usage and efficiency on top. You will build a simple minutes tree, see why 31.2 expected minutes hides the nights he plays 27, and map availability states from confirmed out to fully active. A worked injury scenario shows how a teammate's absence moves several inputs at once. If you price points, rebounds or assists, this is the first number to get right.
Learning objectives
- Explain the methodology and its limits.
- Complete the worked calculations.
- Identify market-specific false signals.
- Apply the technique in a paper exercise.
