Why is an alternate spread of -3.5 not just a better payout than -2.5? Because in football the distance between those lines holds a lot of probability. NFL alternate spread margin distributions describe how often games end by exactly 3, 7 or somewhere in between, and that shape is what you price against. You will build a probability ladder from cumulative estimates, read each rung as a win chance, and compare it with the break-even rate the odds imply. You will also handle pushes properly on whole-number lines, using win, push and loss together. A bigger payout is only attractive when the chance behind it holds up, and this shows you how to check.
Learning objectives
- Explain the named technique and its assumptions.
- Work through the fictional example step by step.
- Recognize false signals and uncertainty.
- Apply the method to a paper research exercise.
