Anthony P's WNBA Model June 28, 2023

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This betting model is derived directly from a source that provides me with all the information for the Sharp Report which I trust implicitly. This model serves as a foundation for determining and handling game lines and totals. As with any model, it incorporates a statistical analysis of both teams, including factors such as injuries and home-court advantage. The distinctive advantage of this model is the inclusion of adjustments based on public perception and early market evaluation. However, it's important to note that this model doesn't accommodate last-minute adjustments. Therefore, for the most accurate and up-to-date advice, I encourage you to reach out to me directly on my Discord channel.

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WNBA BETTING MODEL FOR JUNE 28, 2023

Yesterday was a mixed bag for the Wings and the Sun. The Wings accomplished what they set out to do, but the Sun left something to be desired. The Sun were outperformed in field goal percentage, managing only 39% compared to their opponents' 49%, and in three-point shooting, hitting a mere 32% against the opposing team's 45%.

We have a couple more games on the docket today, but before we delve into the specifics, let's take a moment to examine some wagering trends since our last update on June 22:

Underdogs have been the stars of the show, with a success rate of 59.4%. Away underdogs have a 55% win rate, and intriguingly, home underdogs are performing even better, with a success rate of 66.7%. Moreover, games are trending towards the under 52.5% of the time.

Fast forward to June 28, and the ATS trends have seen some shifts:

The success rate of underdogs has dropped slightly to 55.7%, a decrease from the 59.4% we saw earlier, and significantly down from the season's high of 66%. Away underdogs have remained steady at 55.3%, while the win rate for home underdogs has taken a dip from 66.7% to 56%. This suggests that road favorites have been more successful at covering the spread recently. The totals are back to a 50/50 split versus the under-hitting 52.5% in our last update.

The predictive model doesn't indicate substantial value, but if you have a penchant for WNBA totals, consider the over for Chicago and the under for Washington as potential bets with some value.

The Sharp report reveals that the Sky and Mystics received sharp money, but this only occurred after the betting lines had fallen. The Sky received sharp bets when the line fell from -3.5 to -1 at BetOnline. Interestingly, there were no sharp bets placed on the Sparks at this book.

The book initially projected a neutral outcome for this game, essentially making it a toss-up, and it's perplexing why they opened it at -3.5 — this must be a reflection of public sentiment. Another model I utilize, which calculates wins and margins, suggests the Sparks should be favored by 3.78 points, but this doesn't factor in injuries. Given that Brown is expected to sit out tonight's game, a pick'em line seems reasonable. However, I believe that the book made an error by initially setting the line at -3.5 for the Sky.

The upshot of all this is that snagging the Sparks at +3.5 was a savvy move. Patience may pay off here, as there's a chance we could get a +3 as the line is now trending in the Sky's favor and it's back to -2.5. Currently, the Sparks seem to be in superior form and have already clinched a victory against the Sky earlier this season. Amidst a six-game slump, the Chicago Sky have been struggling, particularly on the defensive end.

In the second game of the night, without diving too deep, the margin model and the bookmakers' initial projections both indicate a strong lean toward the Mystics. However, the opportunity to place a bet on this game might have passed unless the number falls to -4. I believe that the robust Mystics defense will curtail the Dream's scoring output, while the porous Dream defense will struggle to contain the Mystics' attack.

The Mystics have been performing well lately, with a 7-3 record in their last 10 games and a 4-0 record against the spread (ATS) in their last four. However, they have struggled to cover the spread after a straight-up loss, with a 1-7 ATS record in their last eight games in such situations.

On the other hand, the Atlanta Dream have shown occasional sparks of brilliance, but they remain arguably the weakest defensive team in the league. This deficiency makes it challenging for them to compete with top-tier teams that can consistently score. The Washington Mystics, equipped with a potent offense, are well-positioned to exploit the Dream's defensive frailties. This matchup, coupled with their recent profitable run for bettors, makes them a strong pick in this game if we can get the -4.

MODEL Bets:

Anthony's leans: Sparks +3 or better. Mystics -4 or better


Good luck

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