Anthony P's WNBA Model June 20, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

This betting model is derived directly from a source that provides me with all the information for the Sharp Report which I trust implicitly. This model serves as a foundation for determining and handling game lines and totals. As with any model, it incorporates a statistical analysis of both teams, including factors such as injuries and home-court advantage. The distinctive advantage of this model is the inclusion of adjustments based on public perception and early market evaluation. However, it's important to note that this model doesn't accommodate last-minute adjustments. Therefore, for the most accurate and up-to-date advice, I encourage you to reach out to me directly on my Discord channel.

Would you like to unlock all my VIP picks? Use promo code AnthonyP and get 1 month free or Join our free Discord server and ask @anthony p any questions you have.

WNBA BETTING MODEL FOR JUNE 20, 2023

I shared the model yesterday before the lines came out and the raw projections are showing some value.

Since our article of June 15th, favorites have been covering at a higher rate and games have been going under at a higher rate also. This was from the June 15th article:

Astoundingly, the favorites stand at an ATS record of 18-33-3, translating to a mere 35% ATS win rate. Away underdogs have triumphed 60% of the time ATS, while home underdogs boast a striking 71.5% ATS win rate. The game totals, on the other hand, exhibit a balanced 50/50 rate.

Since then the dogs dropped from 65% ATS to 59% and the unders went from 50% to 54%. Home dogs are still trending at a high 65% however dropped from 71.5% ATS. Lastly, away dogs dropped from 60% ATS to 55.3%%.

The Dallas Wings are hosting a game where the line is set at -3, while model projections suggest it's more of an evenly-matched affair. Dallas, despite having the backing of their home crowd, is struggling with a three-game losing streak and a porous defense that's allowed a ton of points in their last 2 games. On the flip side, the Atlanta Dream are in the middle of a hot streak and won 3 straight, steadily improving their points tally over the last 3 games scoring 86-92 and 100 pts. The trends hint at two teams on diverging paths. In this scenario, taking the points seems like a smart move and the model agrees with it. The total is currently hovering around 171 at Pinnacle and moving the opposite way of the projections.

Meanwhile, in Phoenix, the Suns opened at -8.5. However, raw projections suggest a -10 line. The Suns, despite having the second-best record, have been struggling to cover the spread following straight-up wins. The Connecticut Sun, on the other hand, has displayed consistent quality on both ends of the court, and their three losses have been against respectable opponents. The Seattle Storm, underperforming on both ends and frequently on the receiving end of blowouts, don't inspire much confidence, even with a generous point spread.

The LA Sparks' game opened exactly as projected, at -6. The line saw a slight drop to -5.5, attracting sharp money toward LA. Betting limits at the book are set at a maximum of $1,500, but any sharp action tends to trigger swift line movements. The Sparks, after two straight losses post a solid win over Dallas, have struggled against the Lynx, dropping two games including a recent home encounter. The Lynx have been covering the spread over the Sparks with an average margin of +6.7 in their last three meetings. As I pen this, the line has retracted to 5.5, so keep your eyes peeled for the next sharp report update which could indicate a possible shift in sharp money. As of now, based on season trends, I'd lean toward the Lynx.

Good luck

Join the conversation for free in our discord server and ask me how you can get a free month of the Sharp App

Join Discord and ask @anthony p any questions you have on other games