Anthony P's WNBA Model June 15, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

This betting model is derived directly from a source that provides me with all the information for the Sharp Report which I trust implicitly. This model serves as a foundation for determining and handling game lines and totals. As with any model, it incorporates a statistical analysis of both teams, including factors such as injuries and home-court advantage. The distinctive advantage of this model is the inclusion of adjustments based on public perception and early market evaluation. However, it's important to note that this model doesn't accommodate last-minute adjustments. Therefore, for the most accurate and up-to-date advice, I encourage you to reach out to me directly on my Discord channel.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR JUNE 15, 2023

Welcome to the inaugural edition of our WNBA model analysis. To comprehend the origins of this model and its workings, kindly review the introductory section of this article.

In an effort to capitalize on potential line movements, I aim to publish this model early each day. While my focus will be predominantly on weekdays, I will try to cater to the weekends as well.

Today, the model highlighted an opportunity with Indiana at +3, anticipating a pick-em scenario. However, with the line dropping to +1, the value has disappeared. Despite this, I will be monitoring this game keenly to assess if the model's value proposition holds up. Due to the limited liquidity in the WNBA market, totals can be challenging; slight triggers can induce significant line or total shifts. Let's delve into some of the prevalent trends in the league after 49 games.

Astoundingly, the favorites stand at an ATS record of 18-33-3, translating to a mere 35% ATS win rate. Away underdogs have triumphed 60% of the time ATS, while home underdogs boast a striking 71.5% ATS win rate. The game totals, on the other hand, exhibit a balanced 50/50 rate.

The trends suggest that bookmakers tend to exaggerate favorites. For instance, the Aces, despite holding an 8-1 season record, have an ATS record of 4-5. With an average winning margin of 12 points per game, tonight's game is listed at -19, even as the book's raw projection stands at -15.

Interestingly, barring significant injury updates, the line appears to align closely with the average points per win margin. With this in mind, let's examine tonight's games using the points per margin averages.

Atlanta -2.38
Connecticut +4.3

= -6.68

The projection for this game is -7. This means that home-court advantage meant nothing in this game. The line moved to -8 and -8.5. It's possible that the book undervalued this number.

Indiana -1.67
Chicago -1.70

= 0 (pickem)

The projection at the book stayed at 0 but the line opened at -3 based on public perception and that was a mistake since smart money somewhere in the world took the +3 dropping the line to -1. 65% of the handle is on Chicago. Copper is doubtful for the Sky and that can also be a factor for the line dropping. To be honest, I am still not sure how much Copper is worth on the spread therefore it will be info ill be able to dissect better as I gather more knowledge of player evaluations.

Vegas 12.22
Seattle -7

= -19.22

The book's raw projection was -15 and 4.22 pts short of the points per margin. They opened the line at -16, moved to -17 and -17.5 late last night, and -18.5 around 10 am this morning. Looking at the sharp report, sharps have taken a position on the Aces at -16. The max bet limits at the book are set at $1,000 therefore if a sharp wagered that number 4-5 times the book moved up the line very fast.

The model is showing value on the under in Connecticut and Las Vegas and it scares me. Atlanta has the offense to stick around Connecticut and this total should get really close to the 163 mark.

The over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between Vegas and Seattle and 3-0 in their last 3 games. Vegas has scored an average of 104 pts per game vs Seattle and the total went over the total by 23 and 43 pts in 2 of their last 3.

In a nutshell, ill pass and just take notes.

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