Anthony P's WNBA Model July 5, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

This betting model is derived directly from a source that provides me with all the information for the Sharp Report which I trust implicitly. This model serves as a foundation for determining and handling game lines and totals. As with any model, it incorporates a statistical analysis of both teams, including factors such as injuries and home-court advantage. The distinctive advantage of this model is the inclusion of adjustments based on public perception and early market evaluation. However, it's important to note that this model doesn't accommodate last-minute adjustments. Therefore, for the most accurate and up-to-date advice, I encourage you to reach out to me directly on my Discord channel.

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WNBA BETTING MODEL FOR JULY 5, 2023

Hey, hoop heads, we're bouncing back onto the scene with a four-game slate after a bit of a breather. Our predictive model has flagged some intriguing opportunities; let's see if we're on the same page.

According to our model, the odds in the City of Angels aren't what they should be. The raw data suggests that the Atlanta Dream should be leading by a single point, but the bookmakers started off at an even line. Despite a wave of support for the LA Sparks, which pushed the line to -1.5, there's no significant money backing them at the books. On Sunday, the Dream ran rings around the Sparks, demonstrating superior gameplay throughout the season, notably on the offensive front. With a shooting percentage of 54.4 from the field and a cool 42.9 from the deep, they outplayed the Sparks, who managed only 41.8% and a dismal 27.8% respectively. The Dream also dominated the boards, ending with a +7 rebounding margin.

However, it would be unwise to write off the Sparks just yet. They've still got a lot left in the tank, and their home games are where they truly shine, as evidenced by five of their seven wins this season coming on home turf. It's a hard pick.

In other news, we're seeing some potential on the Dallas Wings at +14.5, even as the line dwindles to -14 despite sharp interest on the Las Vegas Aces. Historically, the Wings have outperformed in their face-offs with the Aces, going 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 meetings in Sin City. While the Aces have been winning and covering consistently this season, the Wings' recent road and overall records are a bit lackluster. The Aces, however, have been impressive at home and overall.

Let's switch gears and look at how the trends have evolved since our last check-in on June 28th:

Fast forward to July 5, and there's been a noticeable shift in the ATS trends. The underdogs' success rate has dipped slightly to 53.3%, a significant drop from the season's peak of 66%. Away underdogs have leveled off at 50.3%, suggesting a higher rate of home favorites covering. Home underdogs have seen a slight uptick, moving from 56% to 57.1% ATS.

Meanwhile, the game's scoring trend has taken an interesting turn. In the last week, we've witnessed an uptick in high-scoring games with 53% going over the total, a leap from the previous 50/50 split, and a massive surge from the earlier 47.5%. Let's keep an eye on this space for more trends and updates.


MODEL Bets: Atlanta +1.5, Dallas +14.5

Anthony's leans: None


Good luck

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