Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps September 8, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

RECAP: Sharps were right about the over in Oakland. I was surprised to see Strider give up 2 runs in the 1st. He kept his opponent at 1 run or under 12 times last 15 games. However, sharps were wrong on the under in St Louis. Actually, the under looked good until the 8th inning when the score was 2-0. Then both bullpens messed it up 9 runs.

We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

IT'S THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL FOLKS!!! Man, it feels good. Sharps have been hitting this game on both sides and the over-under.

The Bills opened a 1 dog underdog back in May 2022. Heavy Bills money pushed the book to adjust the line to -1 for the Bills on July 3rd. Heavy money, sharp and square continued on the Bills and the book once again had to adjust the Bills line and moved it to -2.5. Since then we've seen the handle adjust from 75% for the Bills to 57% and the line even dropped to -2 for a couple of days. The book hasn't moved the line to the key number 3 since they are happy with the action they received. If they move the line to -3 it will be a clear indication that they absolutely need more on the Rams, and they will get it. I think the Bills come out strong in the first half and the Rams will cut the gap in the second half. This should be a very close game and I'd be surprised if it's not.

This takes us to the total. It opened at 51.5 and moved up to 53.5 with 75% of the handle on the over. The handle hasn't changed much but the book dropped it to 52 which signaled a reverse line movement. One set of sharps has been betting the over 51.5 and the other set on the under 53.5. 75% of the tickets are on the over making this a square pick in my opinion but I can't blame them since most expect both offenses to go nuts in this game. I am now seeing FanDual posting a 51.5 and others should follow. If that is the case, the sharp under money is overtaking the over money. I locked in the under 52 this week. I am thinking the opposite of the square bettor here. I'm not saying it will be an easy under, I might be sweating this out in the 4th, but I think both defenses will play a strong game and we will see more running than we expected which will take large chunks of the clock.


Good luck today

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