Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps September 7, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

RECAP: Quintana cooled down the red of Nationals and the under didn't hit!

We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

This morning's sharp report update is showing 5 totals.

TORONTO OVER 7.5 -102
ATLANTA OVER 7 -105
WHITE SOX OVER 7 -101
ST LOUIS UNDER 8 -101
MILWAUKEE OVER 11.5 -112

Let's see which games the model agrees with.

Atlanta over 7: This total is about to move to 7.5 and I disagree. They scored 19 runs yesterday, 9 from the A's and that is complete nonsense. The A's are before last in runs scored this year and their ballpark is NOT made for run generating. With Strider on the mount tonight the A's should get blanked. No go for me.

We will have to wait for the White Sox to confirm their pitcher today but with Castillo on the mount and seeing the way Chicago hit yesterday, I won't have much interest in this over.

St Louis under 8: The total can go down to 7.5 anytime now. The under is at -125. Some books opened the total at 8.5 and that got slammed quickly. Abbott came in in relief last 3 games and did well. As a starter, apart from that beating versus the Phillies he did well. His xERA is under 3 therefore he's been better than we think. Montgomery blanked his opponents in 4 of his last 6 games and he's 6-0 at home with an ERA 3.15 and a WHIP of almost under 1.000. The opposite scored 6 runs on him in his last 6 lasts and 5 of them were scored by the Phillies. He's been SOLID. Take the under!

more to come



Good luck today

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