Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps September 6, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

RECAP: LSU WAS A MESS and like I mentioned Florida St +4 or better started to be interesting. VIPs hit a huge 5 dime play on Clemson yesterday but it wasn't an easy one.

We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

It's been a busy day at the book. Yes, we only have MLB on the board today however lots of money is coming in on the NFL and CFB. The book has seen a drop of about 11% in MLB handle since week 0 of college football. Compared to average Tuesdays, the handle is lower today and they expect the handle to keep on dropping. One thing that is constantly growing in baseball are player props. The book handles about 2.5 million dollars per week on props, the hold is about 9%, and generates about a 5% profit on props.

The model doesn't agree with the sharp money today except for the over 8 in St Louis. The Nationals are 6-2 in their last 8 (right??) but much of their success came from facing RHPs and putting up an R/9 of close to 9 in their last 5 games. The Cardinals have been smashing lefties but they are facing an RHP and the Cards have an R/9 of under 2 L5 games versus righties. So the doctor prescribed a dose of Espino to get them back on track. Both the Cards and Braves have easy series and are expected to sweep these bottom-of-the-league teams. The Cardinals went scoreless yesterday and are looking to bounce back. The Nationals' offense has been hot and my model has them scoring close to 3.20 runs today. Espino and the bullpen should give up over 5+ runs therefore I support the over in St Louis tonight.




Good luck today

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