Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps September 4, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

RECAP: It was a messy day yesterday in CFB. Many say they like to wait one or two weeks before laying some cash CFB, I'm one of them but I couldn't resist. I went 0-2 and 3-4 to start the season. Should have waited eh? My recap is below.

We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

The sharps kept the books very busy since week 0 with a ton of adjustments necessary from the books due to sharp action. I like to wait a week or 2 before hitting some CFB bets but I just couldn't resist and I regret it. I'm 0-2 to start the season and I'm sitting on 7 bets today!

Yesterday we were following 7 games where the sharps forced the books to make major adjustments on their lines. I expected most of the game to fall between the numbers.


Maryland from -21.5 to -24 tickets and money has followed.

They won by 21 and failed to cover. Close to 90% of the handle was on Maryland and the book made a nice chunk on Buffalo. (~200k)

Michigan -27.5 to -31 tickets and money has followed.

They won by 44 and easily covered the number. 70% of the handle was on Michigan and the book lost close to 220k.

Appalachian st from +3 to -2 tickets on NC favor while money is on Appalachian st.

This game was an absolute #$(# show with 62 pts scored in the 4th. That's 9 TDs. Insane. Based on the line movement, the handle settled at 60% on Appalachian st. They lost by 2. They would have covered the initial number though. All in all, the book made close to 120k on this game.

Connecticut from -17 to -20 tickets and money has followed.

This game actually closed at -21 and there wasn't much wagered on. This is the case where the max bet limits are low on a game and a sharp comes in and places multiple bets on the game. The book lost about 17k on this game.

Tulsa from -1.5 o -6.5 tickets and money has followed and this is a huge square play

Similar to the Uconn game but with more money on the line, the jump from -1.5 to -6 with under 200k wagered on the game made things weird. Tulsa lost straight up and the book cashed in close to 100k.

Nebraska from -25.5 to -31.5 tickets and money has followed and almost all the money is on Nebraska

Late money on North Dakota dropped the line to +29. Nebraska is terrible. They won by 21 and the books keep on over-evaluating this team. The handle wasn't massive at the book however the book still made close to 100k on this game.

Texas St from +8.5 to -1 tickets and money has followed and this is one of the biggest liabilities at the book.

Top 3 most wagered game in week 1 was between Texas St and Nevada. Weird eh? Florida, Ohio St, Boise, Georgia, and Cincinnati were all in the mix and made more sense right? The dates in this game were Aug 24, Aug 29, and Sept 1. That's when the bulk of the handle came in on Texas St. By kickoff 75% of the handle was on Texas St, they lost by 24 and the book made close to 800k on this game.


For tonight's game, there is no sharp money on either team however we did see some reverse line movement on August 30th where money was coming in on Florida St but the line kept on moving up for LSU. This will be Kelly's first game with his new team on a neutral field. Kelly is 0-9 ATS last 3 years in their first 3 games while Norvell has strong starts to the year ATS. My model likes LSU at -3 or better but it will cost you. The more and more I look at this game if this line goes over 4 the Seminoles will start getting my interest.


Good luck today

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