Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps September 18,, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

RECAP: Took Saturday off from this article since I was busy with my little one however the was lots of drama on Friday. FSU over wasn't an issue. The Braves had no issues however that was a square play. The Guardians with the late comeback for the win and the Brewers were down 5-0, come back and won in the bottom of the 9th.

We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

The format of this article will be changed once we will have multiple sports running every day and the focus will go back to looking at lines that moved the most overnight.

The Browns opened a 5.5 pt favorite on the 7th and sharp were late to jump on that number however they did last Sunday night pushing the line to -7. At that point, the Browns owned about 75% of the handle. Once at -7, a key number, money started coming in on the Jets and the book adjusted the total to -6.5 for the Browns. On the 14th, the Jets owned about 60% of the handle and the book dropped the line to -6. So Browns at -5.5 and Jets at +7 were spots where sharp money come in. My model has the Browns at -5. The under was also affected. Opened at 42 and is currently at 39 at CIRCA.

Shootout in Detroit? We got to love Detroit at home right? They don't win much but they love to cover. Also, they are favorites for the time since Nov 2020. The total went up 4 pts from its opening number of 44.5. Over 80% of the tickets and handle is on the over!!

Brady is looking for his first win versus the Saints and I've been paying close attention to the book's data. The book opened the Bucs at -3 +105 on September 3rd and for some reason, after that shitty performance versus the Cowboys, the book saw sharp money on the Bucs HOWEVER they didn't move the line but only the juice. -3 -115 stayed a couple of days until overwhelming sharp money came on the other side and forced the book to move from the key number and drop the line to -2.5 -110 and are now asking for some Tampa Bay money. 60% of the handle is on the Saints.

The Raiders owned the 2nd most wagered game at the book (as of midnight EST) The book saw a big jump in cash on the Raiders on the 12th and 14th. The first jump made the book move the line from -205 to -4.5 and the second jump was from -4.5 to -6. The tickets are almost even however the handle is at 60% in favor of Las Vegas. The Cardinals are dysfunctional right now and the Raiders will want to bounce back. The Raiders should have it easier versus the Cardinals and especially in the passing game. The Raiders pass coverage is nothing special and Murray should have a better game. I can see a blowout here and this makes the Cardinals interesting in DFS.

Good luck today

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