Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps September 16,, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

RECAP: Entertaining night yesterday. The Football game was great but wasn't covered here. The Marlins cashed in nicely, the Mets under lost in a freaking stupid way and I WARNED you guys about the under in Toronto!!

We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

The format of this article will be changed once we will have multiple sports running every day and the focus will go back to looking at lines that moved the most overnight.

We have some college football tonight therefore we will start with that.

Florida State and the over have been the most popular plays. FSU jumped from -1.5 to -2.5 and can move to -3 by kick-off. We don't have sharp money on the side and it seems the squares are hard behind FSU with 80% of the tickets while the handle is closer to 55%. On the other hand, the total did receive sharp money at 54.5 but the boys at the book only started hitting it at 56.5. The total is now sitting at 57 with the tickets at 50/50 and 61% of the handle is on the over.

It's been sort of quiet in the MLB. We have a couple of moves that were triggered at the book but nothing crazy. The Braves jumped from -171 to -191 but it's all square interest.

The Guardians took a beating yesterday and are looking to get back on track with McKenzie on the mount. Sharps jumped on Cleveland at -130 and pushed the line to -143. Oder hasn't pitched since June 1 and got beat up by the Tigers last time he was out.

The most important move is in Milwaukee between the Yankees and Brewers. The Yankees opened a -133 favorite yesterday night just to see all the money come in on the Brewers and forced the books to lower the Yankees to -113. The Yankees, which are one of the most square teams in the league own 68% of the tickets while the handle is dominated by the Brewers at 78%. Milwaukee cannot lose any more games if they want to stay alive and chase for a playoff spot. Frankies hasn't been good with the Yankees and has only registered one win since joining in August. He's allowed 24 ERs in 35.4 IP. Houser's challenge tonight will be a little harder than his last 3 games where he took care of business versus the Reds, Rockies, and Pirates. He won his 2 last game and he has an ERA of 1.38 and a WHIP of 0.62 in his last 3 games. He's also much better at home this season and I fully agree with the sharp money here.

Good luck today

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