Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps September 13, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

RECAP: On Sunday we reviewed 3 games where we saw a big line movement from its released date back in May 2022. The Titans lost straight up, the Saints needed a FG with 23 seconds left to close the game in Atlanta and the Vikings did what we all expected.

We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

If you are seeing big line movement from the opening number it's absolutely normal for week 1. The books opened their betting lines back in May (some even before) and they had plenty of time to adjust the number.

The focus is back to baseball until Thursday when we will be spoiled with another amazing game between the Chiefs and Chargers.

In the meantime, the sharps have been busy overnight and the sharp report is showing 6 games in which they took interest. Let's take a look at 3 of those that I agree with along with my betting model.

HOUSTON -229
ARIZONA +179
LA ANGELS +129

Houston can be found at -215 at Betonline while other books have it between -220 and -235. Brown pitched a gem versus Texas in his first game in the major and he's got another easy matchup in Detroit tonight. Worst case, Brown has the best bullpen in the league to back him up. Don't get fooled by Hutchison's numbers. He will have a hard time versus the Astro's especially lefties. His xERA indicates regression coming and lefties have been hitting .311 in 21 innings pitched at home.

Last week Arizona was one of the hottest teams and then hit a wall. 1-5 in their last 6 games and Anderson rolled over them yesterday. Tonight the sharps are liking the betting angle in having 2 solid pitchers on the mount and the underdog's line is high. Kelly can shut down the Dodgers and the Dbacks bats showed us that they can stay competitive with top-tier teams. The under is also in play in this game.

Oh my, the Angels. Another wasted season. They opened at +135 underdog and with only 45% of the handle on them, the line moved to +117. It's obvious that sharp money is behind this move. Morris is starting for the Guardians and he shouldn't pitch much. He pitched 6 innings this year, 2 versus Seattle and 4 versus Kansas City. Seattle roughed him up getting 3 runs on him which 2 were earned. I suspect he will have a rough time versus the Angels bats and we can give Suarez a boost here with the Guardians sitting 28th in runs scored in the last 30 days.

Good luck today

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