Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps September 11, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

RECAP: Last edition we had the Bills going under and it cashed nicely. What a dominant win from my Bills!!!

We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

If you are seeing big line movement from the opening number it's absolutely normal for week 1. The books opened their betting lines back in May (some even before) and they had plenty of time to adjust the number.

The sharp reports the last update has 5 games in which sharps have hit. Let's take a look at a couple of them.

TENNESEE -5
The Titans opened a 6.5 favorites back in May and the line moved a full point down with 55% of the handle on them. The public seems to be invested on the Giants with close to 80% of the tickets on them. The Giants at +7 would have been an auto lock for me. This game should stay closer to the 3 pts.


NEW ORLEANS -3
The Saints moved from -3.5 to -5 in May. More sharp money in July pushed the line to -5.5 and they own 70% of the handle and tickets. Atlanta did not cover a home game last year and was outscored by 13 pts per game. Ridley is out, OL needs a rebuild (so does the full team), London is out... I am comfortable with the Saints even after the live movement.


MINNESOTA +2.5
HUGE GAME!!! Can't wait for this one. Vikings opened a 2-point dog back in May 2022 and even posted a +2.5 on August 23rd. Then hell broke loose and the book saw the handle go from 68% on Green Bay to 55% on Minnesota. They moved Minnesota to -1.5 this morning and the handle is at 50/50 and that's exactly what the book wanted for this game. The Vikings are solid when a home dog going 17-6 ATS in their last 23 however they are now favorites. Rogers should be concerned since 2 of his best tackles are fighting knee injuries and we have yet to see who will be his new favorites target after losing Adams. This Green Bay team is not the same any more folks. Love the Vikings today.



Good luck today

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