Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps October 31, 2022
Anthony P
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.
Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.
We look for sharps to be much more active in the NHL and NBA since the MLB is almost over however this is not these are not sports that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games. The NBA sees much more action than the NHL.
For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.
Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.The format of this article will be changed once we will have multiple sports running every day and the focus will go back to looking at lines that moved the most overnight. RECAP of yesterday's games: No plays to review from yesterday.
Tonight we have some NHL, NBA, and MLB. The NBA is leading with the biggest slate but only 7 games.
In the NBA we have a couple of interesting spots and one of them is the under in Washington. We have 2 top D's and 2 bottom offenses squaring off. Consensus sportsbook opened their total at 222 while Betonline posted 220.5. The under was slammed at 222, 220.5, and 218. With 80% of the handle on the under, the total is now at 216.5.
We have an interesting matchup in Charlotte. My betting model loves the Hornets however the smart money is moving on the Kings. The line opened at -1 and it's currently at -3. I shared my thought on this game in the NBA Model article.
In Milwaukee, we have a sharp signal on the Bucks however that line didn't move much. the biggest move is on the under however no sharp at the hit it. The number opened at 228.5 and moved up to 229.5. Since this morning the handle rebalanced from 75% on the under to 50% however the book had to adjust the number to 224.5
In the NHL we had one move which turned into 2 in the last 5 minutes. I wrote about the BLues and Kings tonight in the NHL model article. The Blues opened at -145 at BetOnline and the sharp money on the Kings pressured the book to drop the number to -120. The sharps are also doing some damage to the total. It opened at 6.5u -118 yesterday morning and instantly dropped to 6o -113. With most of the handle on the over, the total dropped again before lunchtime, and it's at 5.5o -127. Heavy sharp money on the under.
To recap LA Kings ML, Kings under the total, Milwaukee under, Sacramento Kings, and Washington under.
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