Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps October 21, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

RECAP: The Preds and Yankees failed to win once again and the sharps were wrong. However, they were spot on with the under in South Alabama.

We look for sharps to be much more active in the NHL and NBA since the MLB is almost over however this is not these are not sports that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games. The NBA sees much more action then the NHL.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

The format of this article will be changed once we will have multiple sports running every day and the focus will go back to looking at lines that moved the most overnight.

We are loaded on NBA games tonight but the market has been very quiet and it's normal this early in the season. Also, it doesn't take much for a book to move a line when a sharp picks his side. Lastly, the sharp report was very quiet overnight and doesn't have any targeted games yet.

Lines that are on the move are the Pelicans, Knicks, and Suns.

The Pelicans opened at between -5.5 and -6 at market makers and jumped to -7 this morning and it looks like it's on the move to -7.5 before lunchtime. 85% of the handle is on the Pelicans.

The Knicks held tight in Memphis and the Grizzlies needed OT to win. Similar to the Pelicans, the Knicks opened between -5.5 and -6 and moved up to -7 this morning with 58% of the handle on them. Barrett will need to be better if the Knicks want to win or cover tonight.

Phoniex was down 22 to Dallas and then came back to win straight up however did not cover. They opened between -3 and -4 depending on the market maker and the line is at -5 -115 with close to 90% of the handle this line can keep on moving up. My model has Portland at -1.5 with Lillard back but he wasn't impressive and only hit 5 of his 18 shots.

The biggest move in the NHL was in Chicago. They've been on the sharp report since yesterday afternoon and sharp money was still coming in late last night. 72% of the handle is on Detroit however the book moved the line in the Blackhawk's favor making an adjustment from +118 to -102. My model has Chicago at -128 and there is still value in them. I don't agree with the sharps and model. Detroit is much better than last year and much better on paper.

In CFB we have a couple worth taking a look at but there wasn't much action overnight. Temple made it on the sharp report yesterday however was removed when sharp money started coming in on the opposite side. UAB and WK saw some sharp money on the over overnight jumping from 57.5 to 59 and back down to 58.5 -115. We should see this total move back up to 59 with the handle on the over jumping from 60 to 77%.

Games to recap: Pelicans, Knicks, Phoniex, Chicago (NHL), and the over in Western Kentucky.

Good luck today

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