Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps October 16, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

RECAP: What a crazy day in CFB yesterday. Sharps were wrong on Alabama while squares were being Tennessee. Oklahoma was a cover for whoever had them at -9.5 or better. Kansas was another big square play. The Canuck laid an egg giving away a 2-0 lead and losing 3-2 to the Flyers.

We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

The format of this article will be changed once we will have multiple sports running every day and the focus will go back to looking at lines that moved the most overnight.

I've covered most of the early moves in the NFL early on Monday in the NFL model article however let's take another look at the biggest movers.

In terms of volume (tickets) we have 4 games that are fighting for 1st place:

Tampa Bay
Green Bay
Kansas City
NY Giants

In terms of total handle, we have 3 of the 4 games above that are in the top 3 however the Giants game is far from close to any of those 3, therefore, making the Ravens one of the highest square plays of the day.

Some say it's an overaction and others say it's not. Tampa Bay opened at -6 and is now at -9.5 at Betonline and -10 at most of the other books. There is money coming in on the Steelers at +10 but not much to move the line under -9.5. A set of sharps did bet TB from -6 to -8.5 and stopped.

The Jets have surprised many while the Packers have disappointed just as much. The line dropped from -10.5 to -7 and back up to -7.5 and there is still a liability on the Packers at the book.

My model thinks the Chiefs should be a 2 pt favorite however they are getting 2.5 points. The chiefs opened at -1.5 and hit +3 on Oct 13. With 65% of the handle on the Chiefs, the book saw the handle drop to 54% when they adjusted the line to +2.5. We can still see this line move back up to +3 based on the late money coming in.

Are the Giants the worst 4-1 team ever? I really thought that but the more I look at them and the more I see great things from the players which translate to great coaching. The books don't give a shit and still think they suck! Baltimore opened at -3.5 and jumped to -6 with 96% of the handle on them. Even if overall money was still coming in on the Ravens, we saw big bets coming in on the Giants a +6 which dropped the handle to 53% and the line down to -4.5. Since then the money has been steady on the Ravens and the line moved back to -5 and -5.5 and 60% of the handle is on the Ravens.

Good luck today

Join Discord and ask @anthony p any questions you have on other games