Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps October 15, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

RECAP: The Lighting gets the job done and the Canes are still in the 1st period at the moment of writing this. The Yankees stayed under the total and that was a loss. The Nuggets game is trending to go over the total and it looks like SMU will barely cover.

We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

The format of this article will be changed once we will have multiple sports running every day and the focus will go back to looking at lines that moved the most overnight.

Saturday's are about to get really really busy and my wife will HATE me! But it is what it is.

In CFB there is a massive amount of volume on the Michigan and Alabama games. The tickets are by far the highest. In terms of handle, USC, Alabama, Michigan, Florida, and Kansas lead the way.

Michigan opened at -6.5 at Betonline however I've seen some -5.5s at some US books. The line moved to -7 and back down to -6.5 and back up to -7. The book is really trying to balance the action and they've done a good with 53% of the handle on Michigan.

The squares are loving Tennessee this weekend however some late sharp money is pushing this line beyond the key number 7 and the books moved Alabama up to -9. Tennessee owns close to 70% of the tickets and the handle is now close to 50/50.

We will need to cover USC because there is a shitload on the game and this line has been moving between -3 to -3.5 back and forth for the last 5 days. The book is also trying to balance the handle in this game and since moving Utah at -3 this evening the book got the push they wanted and the handle went from 71% on USC to 55%.

In the Florida game, some sportsbooks opened Florida at -4.5 on very low limits and readjusted to -3 when market makers opened their lines. The numbers in this game are tricky. With 70% of the handle, Florida was dropped at -2.5 and the money kept on coming on LSU to the point that they now own 59% of the handle but the line is still at -2.5 for Florida. This can be a game where the book is gambling and trying to make people think they want LSU money however they think Florida covers the -2.5.

In Oklahoma, the book was preparing for the worst. Kansas owns 70% of the handle and 80% of the tickets but somehow the book moved the line from -7 to -9. I am aware of 2 sharps slamming Oklahoma at -7. Fandual also posted a -10 late Tuesday night. It also didn't look to bother the sharps having this live moving from a key number since we have sharp bets on the -7.5 and -8.5

In the NHL we have a huge slate and the only game with sharp interest is on the Canucks. Vancouver opened at -108 sharps jumped on it and the book moved the line to -126. My model has this game at -135 and agreed with the value. I'm sure more opportunities will rise overnight and Ill update this article in the morning.

MLB is very slow. We have yet to get confirmation on whos pitching for the Phillies and Padres. In the 2 other games, we have yet to see movement on a side however the under 7 was hit a couple of times in Cleveland and the total was dropped to 6.5. Some books are still posting 7 but that will drop at any time soon.

Good luck today

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