Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps October 14, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lwering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

RECAP: Almost a perfect night. The over in Detroit (NBA) and TNF were no sweats! the Devils got outmatched in Philly!

We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

The format of this article will be changed once we will have multiple sports running every day and the focus will go back to looking at lines that moved the most overnight.

Another busy day and I like it like that!

In the NHL tonight there is a lot of smart and square money on the Lighting. Tampa features on the sharp money and square side of the sharp report. At BetOnline, the Lighting opened at -165 and got steamed at -165 and -175, and it's now at -183. At Draftkings, the Lightning opened at -190 and dropped at -180.

Carolina is another big number but there is still value as per the NHL model. The Canes opened at -180 yesterday afternoon and sharp money pushed it to -193 and then -203.

In baseball, it's been very very quiet. The only thing to keep an eye on is the total in New York. It looks like some over money is coming in and some books have moved the total to 6.5. For those that read my MLB model article I have this total at 7, I don't agree with it but sometimes my models are smarter them me.

I love seeing retail books trying to act like market makers. Consensus is one of them. they got slapped with the opened total in Golden State tonight. They posted a 214.5 and within 50 min they adjusted to 222.5. The total is currently at 225.5 and it's still taking a lot of money on the over.

The lines in the NBA haven't moved much and I have nothing to report.

We faded SMU last week and the bet recommendation was on UCF. It was a win for us. This week I would have supported SMU at -9.5 or even at -10 but not at the current number. SMU opened at -10.5 at BetOnline and it's currently at -12. There is no sharp money at the book and expect this line to keep on moving in SMU's favor.

Good luck today

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