Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps November 9, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

We look for sharps to be much more active in the NHL and NBA since the MLB is almost over however this is not these are not sports that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games. The NBA sees much more action than the NHL.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

The format of this article will be changed once we will have multiple sports running every day and the focus will go back to looking at lines that moved the most overnight.

RECAP of yesterday's games: It was not a good day for the smart money yesterday. The Flyers and Devils did their job however the Sabres, Tampa, the under in Duquesne, over in Providence, under in East Carolina and Miami Ohio were all losses.

We have another busy day and we will start with the NHL. And it stops here for the NHL. I don't have anything to dig in. The sharp report is showing some plays but the lines haven't moved much. But what I can share is that US retail books are getting more and more aggressive in opening NHL lines, ahead of market makers and at times leading the way and getting burnt. Taking a look at Consensus and Fanduel, they opened the Caps at -120 in the middle of the night of Nov 8th and it stayed that way until a market maker opened the Pens at -135, and guess what happened? Everyone slammed the Pens at +100 at FD. Rookies.....

Relatively quiet overnight in the NBA. Last 2-3 slates we've seen some nonsense in some of the games we were following. The sharp report is showing 3 games but let's cover a couple of other games and leave those for the VIPs.

The Nets jumped from -1.5 to -3 but that move happened yesterday afternoon. Sharps jumped on the -1.5 and -2.5. The Knick's handle is higher than the Nets but the line is moving in the Nets favor. We don't have sharp money at the book however someone somewhere is really liking the Nets and made the line move.

The Bucks went to Atlanta who was without Trea and thought it was going to be an easy game. They suffered their first loss and it wasn't pretty. Tonight, they are once again on the road playing OKC. They opened at -7.5 and Holiday should be out tonight and sharps in the US markets hit the Thunder at +7.5 and +6.5. The Bucs still hold 55% of the handle but this line is now at -5.5.

In CBB, Louisville is playing Bellarmine and they opened a 16 pt fav at Consensus. Betonline opened its line at -13 and even though with small max bet limits available some sharps slammed Bellarmine and forced the market makers to drop the line to -9.5.

After Toledo's win yesterday, this Western Michigan game is important and FanDuel initially opened them as a 2.5 favorite back on Nov 6. Within hours 5dimes opened it at a Pickem and the rest followed. There hasn't been much movement on the spread however the total dropped from 52 to 49 and we have confirmed sharp money on the under at the book.

Good luck today

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