Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps November 30
Anthony P
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.
Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or moneyline beforeeveryone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.
Sharps, we're right about the Sixers under. Orlando hasn't scored over 100 pts in 5 straight now. If you were a sharp and took Dallas over 207 well you were right also. The total closed at 211 and the game finished at 210 pts. Oh and let's not forget the Pelicans, straight-up 19pt winners in LA, they opened a 9 pt dog. The Sharp community was perfect yesterday.
LA LAKERS
One of our top value plays as per the NBA model is the Sacramento Kings. SHARPS disagree. Market Makers opened the Lakers a 3.5 pt fav this morning and immediately slammed the -3.5 and -4 pushing the line to -5. Heritage is still showing -3.5 while Betonline pushed the line to -5.5 with a max bet limit of $550. Barnes and doubtful and based on the line movement we can assume Davis and James will be playing.
NASHVILLE PREDATORS
The Preds are a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 games when playing at home against the Bluejackets. Both teams are coming off a bad loss. The 9th best overall offense (CBJ) will be facing the 9th worst defense. The Bluejackets also hold the 6th best power plays on the road and the 9th best penalty kill on the road. Both teams are at the bottom of the league in terms of puck possession. Sounds like an even match up eh? It's not, the Preds have a much more talented team and haven't really played up to expectations. Our NHL model has this game priced at -159 for the Preds. Markets makers opened the line at -135 yesterday morning and within 40 min the line reached -152. Our model and the sharps are aligned on this game. Max bet limits on this game are well over 10k and this indicates the line is properly adjusted and books are ready for business.
INDIANA
It's all been Indiana love from the opening. Coach Boeheim blamed fatigue for the poor play in the Bahamas. 6-0 Indiana will be on the road for the first time this season and market makers priced this game as a pickem yesterday afternoon. Some light movement during the day even make Syracuse a small favourite and that is when the heavy sharp money started coming in. Sharp hit Indiana at +1, -1 and -2. Depending on the book, the line is now between -2.5 and -3.5. I have Indiana favourite by 1 pt and don't see much value in this game however if Syracuse keeps on allowing 80 pts per game they might be in for a long night.
See you guys tomorrow for a quick recap of these games!
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