Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps November 3, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

We look for sharps to be much more active in the NHL and NBA since the MLB is almost over however this is not these are not sports that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games. The NBA sees much more action than the NHL.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

The format of this article will be changed once we will have multiple sports running every day and the focus will go back to looking at lines that moved the most overnight.

RECAP of yesterday's games: Here is a great example of how the books get it right on some of the games. Go back and read yesterday's write-up on BG. They won by 4. Northern Illinois was a loss and the same went for the Hawks. The Bulls eunder was an easy one.

Tonight we have a ton of NHL with a sprinkle of MLB, NBA, CFB, and of course NFL.

If you like to bet underdogs in the NHL don't look too far than in Minnesota. Sharps bet on these dogs because they present value and not because they might think win. The Kraken won 3 of their last 4 and in their 3 last losses, they've all been by 1 goal. They opened at +184 at the book and sharps got on them at +180, +175, and +162. The line is now at +148. Most of the value is gone and my NHL model is now showing value on the Wild.

The Preds looked terrible in Edmonton and now they will face a pissed-off Flames team that just lost to Seattle a couple of nights ago. The Flames collapsed in their 3rd and blew a comfortable lead and this is something we don't see often coming from them. Calgary opened at -170 and the sharp money didn't hesitate to slam them. The line is now at -193 and this line can pass the -200 by game time.

Golden State will be very popular tonight however I have yet to see a square signal in the Sharp report. The Warriors did make it in the sharp report last night when sharp money started coming in at -8. The line moved to -9 and dropped back down to -8 and is now back up to -9. At my book, the sharp money is only on the Warriors but it's very possible that other books are getting interested in the Magic at +9.

In CFB, 2 of the 3 games tonight have available lines to bet on and we have 3 moves to talk about. The under in Rice moved from 49.5 to 47.5 in the global markets, we have no sharps on this game at the book, and it's all square money on the under.

In the Coastal Carolina game is where we find more significant moves. Earlier this week CC made on the sportsbook liability section since an important % of the handle was on Appalachian State. The line moved accordingly on Halloween night and settled at key number 3. In this morning's update, the handle has shifted to Coastal Carolina but the line hasn't moved. What is the sportsbook telling us here?

I will cover the NFL in the Bottom line article.

To recap: Seattle, Calgary, Golden State

Good luck today

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