Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps November 29, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

We look for sharps to be much more active in the NHL and NBA since the MLB is almost over however this is not these are not sports that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games. The NBA sees much more action than the NHL.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

The format of this article will be changed once we will have multiple sports running every day and the focus will go back to looking at lines that moved the most overnight.

RECAP of yesterday's games: CLEAN UP IN AISLE !!! As mentioned, the Blues fatigue issues gave an edge to the Stars and they won 4-1. The Suns, which were the better team won, the Pacers surprised me and I was on the Lakers but the smart money was right and I was wrong. Pittsburgh dismantled Northwestern. 4-0 sweep.

Let's stay hot! 9 games in the NHL and not much movement. The sharp report has 2 plays on the board and they haven't much either. The Panthers played last night and had a short travel to Calgary. We all know what happens when a team is playing on a b2b! The Flames opened a -140 favorite early this morning and quickly jumped to -153. Both teams have been struggling as of late and we can expect many goals tonight.

The Flyers are one of the worst in xGF/60 this year and sport the worst offense in the league. It doesn't help that they are missing 4 of their best scorer. Both the Flyers and Islanders are at the bottom of the league in terms of xGA/60 but their goaltending has been saving their asses. Smart money is on the under. The total opened at 6 and immediately dropped to 5.5. Head to head, in their last 10 games, the total reached 6 only twice and the games both went under. It was set at 5.5 7 times and the under hit 4 times.

In Portland, with the news of Leonard still sidelined with an ankle injury and Wall out (rest), first, I don't agree with my model's projection and second, the under got hit hard last night. The total opened at 217 and was hit with sharp money at 217 and 214 forcing the book to adjust the total to 211. The max bet limits are still under 3k and there is still room for this total to move.

Davidson is the 4th most wagered game in CBB today and the smart money jumped on Charlotte at +6.5 and +5.5 last night. The books have adjusted the line to +4 this morning. 60% of the handle is on the visiting team while square action is on the home team at 80% of the tickets. Both my model and Kenpom have Davidson at +5. It is possible the sharp money is highly invested in this Charlotte's defense but I believe Davidson's offense will be hard to stop and they've been rolling lately.

To recap Flames, Islanders under 5.5, Portland under 211, Charlotte +4

Good luck today

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