Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps November 26
Anthony P
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.
Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or moneyline beforeeveryone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.
Took the day off yesterday. I hope everyone had a great time with family and some NFL.
St Louis Blues
There is lots of movement in the NHL. It was a day off for them yesterday therefore there was plenty of time for these lines to adjust. Both St Louis and Chicago hit a wall in their last game losing in DET and in CGY. Chicago always had issues with St Louis's aggressive forechecking and have lost their last 5 playing them. Chicago will be happy returning at home where they are 4-1 before leaving for a 4 game road trip. St Louis is 1-4 in their last 5 on the road losing to ANA, CAR, DAL and DET. Our NHL model is projecting a win probability of 55.5% (-125) for the Blues. A market maker opened the Blues a -112 favourite yesterday afternoon and the line moved to -145 before midnight. One set of sharps hit St Louis at -121 and -128. Currently sitting at -143 with a max bet limit of 10k, it's safe to say that this line adjusted, that both our model and sharps like the Blues and that at the current number there is no more value on the Blues
New Jersey Devils
The Devils looked great vs the Wild last game. They did lose but they deserved better. Looking at some analytics, the Devils had a CF% of 62.5% (puck possession) and generate double the amount of scoring chances than the Wild did. Yup, NHL isn't fair sometimes. Our NHL model is showing value on the Preds but the sharps are in full disagreement with it. Market makers opened the Preds a -160 favourite and this line dropped to -130 this morning. Sharp money came in on the Devils at +140 and +125. Prior to the Wild game, the Devils beat the Lighting in a game where they also controlled puck possession. It is possible here that the sharps see great value behind the Devils based on their recent play and I cant really disagree with that especially since Forsberg might be out tonight.
Iowa / Nebraska
Our game of the day where we find a ton of drama is here. Let's just start by saying I have this game at a pickem without Martinez. The drama began with 5dimes opening Iowa a -2 fav on Nov 18th. A shit ton of steam (sharp money) came in on Nebraska's on Nov 21st and the line swang 5.5 pts and now Nebraska is a -3.5 pt favourite! From there, another set of sharps, supporting Iowa drop the line to -2.5 and by then the book is just trying to balance the handle around the key number of 3. We are done right?? HELL NO!!! On Nov 22nd news broke that Martinez will be missing the rest of the season due to a shoulder injury and Iowa supporters pushed them from +2.5 to -1.5 and from there the line is going from -1.5 to +1. By 8 am this morning, Iowa held 70% of the tickets and 66% of the money. This is the most popular and most wagered game up to now. Which side are you on? Join the conversation on our free Discord server.
Good luck tonight!
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